Invest in the Midwest

Typically, it is more cost-effective to replace the old rather than repair it. Sunbelt greenfields had no legacy pension obligations, no contaminated brownfields, and no century-old water mains. Race plays a significant role; redlining and white flight depleted Midwestern urban centers at the height of the Great Migration, leading to a cycle of disinvestment. Unlike Germany or Japan, the US did not implement an industrial policy to support its manufacturing sector; subsidies were directed primarily to the south and west. Sunbelt growth was never accurately valued. Federal dams and the Central Arizona Project provided water to the desert at a loss, highway funds and mortgage guarantees supported urban expansion, and federal flood insurance continues to sustain construction along the hurricane-prone Florida coastline. Phoenix and Las Vegas experienced rapid growth in a desert environment, whereas the Midwest is located near the Great Lakes, which contain about one-fifth of the world's fresh surface water. 

Additionally, the Midwest has underutilized rail, ports, grid capacity, and housing resources. There is a valid argument that water flows may eventually reverse due to increasing water stress and heat. Early indications of this trend can be observed in the locations of new battery and chip plants.Investing in the Midwest offers a compelling alternative to the ongoing trend of concentrating jobs and development in the Sunbelt, focusing on restoration, land, and resources.Water is essential.The Great Lakes contain 21% of the world's surface fresh water and 90% of the fresh water supply in the United States, totaling approximately six quadrillion gallons for 40 million people (NOAA, EPA). Importantly, the 2008 Great Lakes Compact prohibits water diversions outside the basin, which means that water cannot be transported to Phoenix or Las Vegas. Businesses must come to the water instead. Water is essential for manufacturing, food and beverage production, data centers, and chipmaking. Lack of access poses a risk to businesses.In contrast, the Sunbelt is experiencing a significant shift. Forest Service research indicates that by 2070, 31–65% of counties experiencing water shortages and 46–68% facing heat stress will be located in the southern half of the United States, particularly affecting Arizona, New Mexico, and southwestern Texas. A substantial portion of this risk is directly linked to population growth.The Sunbelt: Overdevelopment and reliance on unsustainable practices characterize the Sunbelt. and relies on unsustainable practices.Heat functions as an economic burden. The Dallas Fed reported that a 1-degree increase in summer temperature reduces Texas GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points. The heat wave in 2023 alone resulted in a GDP loss of $10–24 billion for Texas. Insurance is facing significant challenges: Property insurance increased by 24–35% within a year in metropolitan areas such as Orlando, Houston, Tampa, San Antonio, and Dallas, with insurers withdrawing from markets altogether—"stripping the cash flow out of real estate deals" (Yardi Matrix, Newsweek). 

Assets are increasingly vulnerable to billion-dollar disasters, with a record 28 occurring in 2023, including seven in Texas.Restoration is preferable to new construction: the case for land use.The Midwest requires reinvestment in existing infrastructure rather than greenfield sprawl, as it is more cost-effective and environmentally friendly. Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Gary possess underutilized grids, rail systems, ports, and industrial sites that are already established. Cities such as Detroit and Cleveland are preparing to accommodate climate migrants. Land is affordable and accessible: New arrivals highlight cost as the primary attraction — a functioning 11-acre Ohio farm with barns for less than $350K. Retiring marginal cropland, restoring wetlands and riparian buffers, and re-establishing conservation cover provide significant carbon sequestration potential. Organic soils can store approximately 14.3 metric tonnes of CO₂-equivalent per acre

.Food security is present in the Midwest.The region spans 328 million acres, with 284 million designated as cropland and forest, and it generates over 30% of the global corn and soybean supply. Investing in climate-smart agriculture, agrivoltaics, and wetland restoration safeguards the food supply. In contrast, Sunbelt growth leads to desert development and depletes aquifers for turf and subdivisions.The migration is currently underway — observe it.The Midwest was the only US region where every state gained population from 2023 to 2024, and Midwest metros accounted for most of the nation's fastest-growing areas according to recent Bank of America data. In the past five years, more individuals relocated to the Midwest than departed, marking a trend not observed in 70 years. Climate researchers have identified Duluth, Ann Arbor, Madison, and the Great Lakes region as emerging "climate havens."The main pointInvesting in Sunbelt development poses risks related to water scarcity, increasing heat, and deteriorating insurance calculations over time. Every dollar invested in the Midwest supports the world's largest protected freshwater reserve, the most productive farmland, affordable land with existing infrastructure, and significant restoration opportunities in North America. Investing in that area is not about nostalgia for the Rust Belt; it's about acquiring the most scarce assets of the 21st century at a lower price while they remain affordable.

AdvisorSmith. "Most and Least Expensive States to Register a Business." AdvisorSmith, 23 Mar. 2021, advisorsmith.com/data/most-and-least-expensive-states-to-register-a-business/.

Chief Executive. "Best & Worst States For Business 2026: Inside The Rankings." Chief Executive Magazine, 17 Apr. 2026, chiefexecutive.net/best-worst-states-for-business-2026-inside-the-rankings/.

CNBC. "Ohio Is America's Top State for Business in 2026, Capping Yearslong Rise with First No. 1 Finish." CNBC, 9 July 2026, cnbc.com/2026/07/09/ohio-no-1-americas-top-states-for-business-rankings.html.

Good Goose Gazette. "US Manufacturing Posts 15-Year Job Growth Record." Good Goose Gazette, 30 Jan. 2026, goodgoosegazette.com/us-manufacturing-job-growth-midwest-2026/.

Manufacturing Lead Generation. "Manufacturing Job Growth by State: 2026 Data Report." Manufacturing Lead Generation, 6 July 2026, manufacturingleadgeneration.com/manufacturing-job-growth-by-state/.

National Business Capital. "The Best States to Start a Business in 2026." National Business Capital, 18 Nov. 2025, nationalbusinesscapital.com/data-reports/best-states-to-start-a-business/.

WalletHub. "Best & Worst States to Start a Business in 2026." WalletHub, wallethub.com/edu/best-states-to-start-a-business/36934.

World Population Review. "Best States to Own a Business 2026." World Population Review, 14 May 2026, worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/best-state-to-own-a-business.

From the second response (restoration, land, resources):

Alliance for the Great Lakes. "A Finite Resource." Alliance for the Great Lakes, Aug. 2025, greatlakes.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/AGL_WaterUse_Report_Aug2025_Final.pdf.

---. "Defending the Great Lakes Compact." Alliance for the Great Lakes, 13 Nov. 2025, greatlakes.org/issues/defending-the-great-lakes-compact/.

APCO Worldwide. "The Midwest: Unleashed Potential for Climate Migration and Sustainable Solutions." APCO Worldwide, 22 Jan. 2024, apcoworldwide.com/blog/the-midwest-unleashed-potential-for-climate-migration-and-sustainable-solutions/.

Environmental Health News. "As Climate Risks Grow, More Americans Are Moving to the Midwest." EHN, 24 Sept. 2024, ehn.org/as-climate-risks-grow-more-americans-are-moving-to-the-midwest.

Grist. "Why 'Climate Havens' Might Be Closer to Home Than You'd Think." Grist, 20 Nov. 2023, grist.org/migration/climate-havens-national-climate-assessment-midwest-migration/.

The Guardian. "Only the Midwest Saw US Population Growth in Every State. Will New Residents Change Its Politics?" The Guardian, 1 July 2026, theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/jul/01/midwest-politics-population-growth.

Inside Climate News. "The Sunbelt's Growing Population Faces Increasing Climate Hazards." Inside Climate News, 18 Dec. 2024, insideclimatenews.org/news/18122024/sunbelt-growing-population-faces-increasing-climate-hazards/.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Great Lakes Ecoregion." NOAA, 6 May 2026, noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/freshwater/great-lakes-ecoregion.

Newsweek. "The Sun Belt Boom Is Over." Newsweek, 24 May 2024, newsweek.com/sun-belt-boom-over-opinion-1904633.

Seed World. "Midwest Migration Signals a Financial Power Shift." Seed World, 16 July 2026, seedworld.com/us/2026/07/16/midwest-migration-agriculture/.

Smart Water Magazine. "The Great Lakes as a Source of Wealth in the Midwest." Smart Water Magazine, smartwatermagazine.com/news/smart-water-magazine/great-lakes-a-source-wealth-midwest.

USDA. "Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Vulnerability Assessment." USDA Climate Hubs, 20 Mar. 2015, cakex.org/sites/default/files/documents/Midwest%20Region%20Vulnerability%20Assessment%203_20_2015.pdf.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. "Great Lakes Facts and Figures." EPA, 18 Sept. 2015, epa.gov/greatlakes/great-lakes-facts-and-figures.

U.S. Global Change Research Program. "Fifth National Climate Assessment: Chapter 24, Midwest." USGCRP, 2023, toolkit.climate.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/NCA5_Ch24_Midwest.pdf.

Yardi Matrix. "Will Rising Costs Curb Sunbelt Growth?" Yardi Matrix, yardimatrix.com/blog/will-rising-costs-curb-sunbelt-growth/.

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